Here is my personal rundown, a word document almost copy and pasted for how I see the senate races.
Notes:
– All the numbers, names, and codes can be rather mind-numbing. If you see any spelling or numerical errors, please tell me.
-If you think one race should be rated more competitive than another, or less competitive than another, feel free to make your case. I think I have a good setup, but it isn’t perfect.
-This is a more liberal prediction, how the races will be on election day. (For example, NY25, Dan Maffei will raise and spend about two million dollars, while his opponent, who isn’t an incumbent, will raise and spend around $500,000 & The DCCC will spend money here if they think it is necessary to pickup this seat.)
– *** = Retired Incumbent
– I round fundraising down to the nearest thousand.
Republican Held Seats:
1-7 = Likely Democratic Pickup
8-14 = Lean Democratic Pickup
15-24 = Toss up
25-37 = Lean Republican Retention
38-49 = Likely Republican Retention
50-68 = Race to Watch
Democratic Held Seats:
1-3 = Toss Up
4-14 = Lean Democratic Retention
15-27 = Likely Democratic Retention
House Republicans
1. New York-25*** (D+3) – – – R2B
Dan Maffei v. Dale Sweetland
Total Raised — $1,309,000 v. $133,000
Cash On Hand – $961,000 v. $107,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for NY-25
2. New York-13*** (D+1) – – – R2B
Mike McMahon v. ???
Total Raised —- $498,000 v. $0
Cash On Hand – $470,000 v. $0
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for NY-13
3. Arizona-01*** (R+2) – – – R2B
Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay
Total Raised —- $968,000 v. $293,000
Cash On Hand – $668,000 v. $257,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for AZ-01
4. New Jersey-03*** (D+3) – – – R2B
John Adler v. Chris Myers
Total Raised —- $1,719,000 v. $626,000
Cash On Hand – $1,463,000 v. $155,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for NJ-03
5. Virginia-11*** (R+1) – – – R2B
Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian
Total Raised —- $937,000 v. $1,293,000
Cash On Hand – $275,000 v. $1,039,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for VA-11
6. Illinois-11*** (R+1) – – – R2B
Debbie Halvorson v. Martin Ozinga
Total Raised —- $1,233,000 v. $810,000
Cash On Hand — $916,000 v. $669,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for IL-11
7. New Jersey-07*** (R+1) – – – R2B
Linda Stender v. Leonard Lance
Total Raised —- $1,545,000 v. $385,000
Cash On Hand – $1,200,000 v. $80,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for NJ-07
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8. New York-26*** (R+3) – – – R2B
Jon Powers v. Chris Lee
Total Raised —- $869,000 v. $670,000
Cash On Hand – $488,000 v. $636,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for NY-26
9. New Mexico-01*** (D+2) – – – R2B
Martin Heinrich v. Darren White
Total Raised — $1,240,000 v. $905,000
Cash On Hand — $354,000 v. $634,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for NM-01
10. Michigan-07 (R+2) – – – R2B
Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg
Total Raised — $1,330,000 v. $1,208,000
Cash On Hand — $928,000 v. $855,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for MI-07
11. Minnesota-03*** (R+1) – – – R2B
Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulson
Total Raised — $1,052,000 v. $1,393,000
Cash On Hand — $738,000 v. $1,123,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for MN-03
12. Ohio-15*** (R+1) – – – R2B
Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers
Total Raised —- $1,559,000 v. $1,216,000
Cash On Hand – $1,163,000 v. $879,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for OH-15
13. Washington-08 (D+2) – – – R2B
Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert
Total Raised —- $1,959,000 v. $1,487,000
Cash On Hand – $1,248,000 v. $916,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for WA-08
14. Ohio-16*** (R+4) – – – R2B
John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring
Total Raised — $1,081,000 v. $819,000
Cash On Hand — $531,000 v. $348,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for OH-16
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15. New York-29 (R+5) – – – R2B
Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl
Total Raised — $1,158,000 v. $943,000
Cash On Hand — $652,000 v. $618,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for NY-29
16. North Carolina-08 (R+3) – – – R2B
Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes
Total Raised —- $610,000 v. $2,207,000
Cash On Hand – $231,000 v. $1,174,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for NC-08
17. Illinois-10 (D+4) – – – R2B
Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk
Total Raised —- $1,988,000 v. $3,763,000
Cash On Hand – $1,175,000 v. $2,856,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for IL-10
18. Michigan-09 (R+0) – – – R2B
Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg
Total Raised —- $1,301,000 v. $2,547,000
Cash On Hand – $1,082,000 v. $1,891,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
2006 Results for MI-09
19. Ohio-01 (R+1) – – – R2B
Steve Dreihaus v. Representative Steve Chabot
Total Raised —- $889,000 v. $1,356,000
Cash On Hand – $631,000 v. $1,311,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for OH-01
20. Nevada-03 (D+1) – – – R2B
Dina Titus v. Representative Jon Porter
Total Raised —- $575,000 v. $2,038,000
Cash On Hand – $553,000 v. $1,277,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for NV-03
21. Florida-24 (R+3) – – – R2B
Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney
Total Raised —- $1,142,000 v. $1,388,000
Cash On Hand — $936,000 v. $795,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
2006 Results for FL-24
22. Colorado-04 (R+9) – – – R2B
Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave
Total Raised —- $958,000 v. $1,661,000
Cash On Hand – $580,000 v. $1,155,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for CO-04
23. Florida-21 (R+6) – – – R2B
Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart
Total Raised —- $1,219,000 v. $1,485,000
Cash On Hand – $1,079,000 v. $1,456,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
2006 Results for FL-21
24. Connecticut-04 (D+5) – – – R2B
Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays
Total Raised —- $2,055,000 v. $2,329,000
Cash On Hand – $1,444,000 v. $1,698,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for CT-04
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25. New Mexico-02*** (R+6) – – – R2B
Harry Teague v. Ed Tinsley
Total Raised —- $1,529,000 v. $1,091,000
Cash On Hand —– $75,000 v. $111,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
2006 Results for NM-02
26. Louisiana-04*** (R+7) – – – R2B
Paul Carmouche v. Chris Gorman
Total Raised —- $481,000 v. $706,000
Cash On Hand – $388,000 v. $352,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for LA-04
27. Missouri-09*** (R+7)
Judy Baker v. Bob Onder
Total Raised —- $401,000 v. $495,000
Cash On Hand – $140,000 v. $349,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for MO-09
28. Florida-25 (R+4) – – – R2B
Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart
Total Raised —- $824,000 v. $1,135,000
Cash On Hand – $700,000 v. $752,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for FL-25
29. Idaho-01 (R+19) – – – R2B
Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali
Total Raised —- $997,000 v. $656,000
Cash On Hand – $444,000 v. $250,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for ID-01
30. Alaska-AL (R+14) – – – R2B
Ethan Berkowitz v. Sean Parnell
Total Raised —- $627,000 v. $291,000
Cash On Hand – $398,000 v. $207,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for AK-AL
31. Missouri-06 (R+5) – – – R2B
Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves
Total Raised — $1,852,000 v. $1,902,000
Cash On Hand — $962,000 v. $936,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
2006 Results for MO-06
32. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19) – – – R2B
Gary Trauner v. Mark Gordon
Total Raised —- $955,000 v. $723,000
Cash On Hand – $701,000 v. $69,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for WY-AL
33. Florida-13 (R+4) – – – R2B
Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanan
Total Raised — $1,499,000 v. $2,953,000
Cash On Hand — $578,000 v. $1,572,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for FL-13
34. Ohio-02 (R+13) – – – ER
Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmidt
Total Raised — $1,090,000 v. $858,000
Cash On Hand — $378,000 v. $393,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
2006 Results for OH-02
35. Alabama-02*** (R+13) – – – R2B
Bobby Bright v. Jay Love
Total Raised —- $399,000 v. $1,051,000
Cash On Hand – $280,000 v. $90,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
2006 Results for AL-02
36. California-04*** (R+11) – – – R2B
Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock
Total Raised — $1,314,000 v. $1,596,000
Cash On Hand — $675,000 v. $117,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for CA-04
37. Virginia-02 (R+6) – – – R2B
Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake
Total Raised —- $515,000 v. $1,334,000
Cash On Hand – $409,000 v. $682,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
2006 Results for VA-02
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38. Texas-07 (R+16) – – – ER
Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson
Total Raised —- $1,465,000 v. $983,000
Cash On Hand – $1,050,000 v. $550,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for TX-07
39. Kentucky-02*** (R+13) – – – ER
David Boswell v. Brett Guthrie
Total Raised — $219,000 v. $764,000
Cash On Hand — $45,000 v. $661,000
CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for KY-03
40. Texas-10 (R+13)Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul
Total Raised —- $701,000 v. $975,000
Cash On Hand – $259,000 v. $489,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for TX-10
41. Nevada-02 (R+8) – – – ER
Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller
Total Raised —- $437,000 v. $1,169,000
Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $984,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for NV-02
42. Florida-08 (R+3)
Charlie Stuart v. Representative Richard Keller
Total Raised —- $613,000 v. $986,000
Cash On Hand – $414,000 v. $935,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
2006 Results for FL-08
43. Maryland-01*** (R+10) – – – R2B
Frank Kratovil v. Andrew Harris
Total Raised —- $789,000 v. $1,905,000
Cash On Hand – $454,000 v. $609,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for MD-01
44. Pennsylvania-03 (R+2) – – – ER
Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English
Total Raised —- $314,000 v. $1,579,000
Cash On Hand – $127,000 v. $786,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
2006 Results for PA-03
45. Arizona-03 (R+6) – – – R2B
Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg
Total Raised — $1,065,000 v. $1,704,000
Cash On Hand — $706,000 v. $1,354,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for AZ-03
46. New Jersey-05 (R+4) – – – ER
Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett
Total Raised —- $548,000 v. $983,000
Cash On Hand – $258,000 v. $649,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for NJ-05
47. Virginia-05 (R+6) – – – ER
Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode
Total Raised —- $910,000 v. $818,000
Cash On Hand – $519,000 v. $834,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for VA-05
48. West Virginia-02 (R+5) – – – R2B
Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore
Total Raised —- $629,000 v. $1,143,000
Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $974,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
2006 Results for WV-02
49. California-50 (R+5) – – – ER
Nick Leibham v. Representative Brian Bilbray
Total Raised —- $560,000 v. $879,000
Cash On Hand – $266,000 v. $528,000
CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for CA-50
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50. Pennsylvania-15 (D+2) – – – ER
Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent
Total Raised —- $537,000 v. $1,161,000
Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $686,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for PA-15
51. Alabama-03 (R+4) – – – ER
Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers
Total Raised — $521,000 v. $906,000
Cash On Hand – $410,000 v. $1,119,000
CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for AL-03
52. Pennsylvania-06 (D+2) – – – ER
Bob Roggio v. Representative Jim Gerlach
Total Raised —- $324,000 v. $1,814,000
Cash On Hand – $259,000 v. $761,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for PA-06
53. Florida-18 (R+4) – – – ER
Annette Taddeo v. Representative Ros-Lehtinen
Total Raised —- $475,000 v. $1,124,000
Cash On Hand – $457,000 v. $1,893,000
CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for FL-18
54. Indiana-03 (R+16) – – – ER
Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder
Total Raised —- $459,000 v. $556,000
Cash On Hand – $351,000 v. $323,000
CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for IN-03
55. California-46 (R+6)
Debbie Cook v. Representative Dana Rohrbacher
Total Raised — $157,000 v. $319,000
Cash On Hand — $97,000 v. $387,000
CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for CA-46
56.Virginia-10 (R+5) – – – ER
Judy Feder v. Representative Frank Wolf
Total Raised — $1,207,000 v. $1,403,000
Cash On Hand — $812,000 v. $849,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for VA-10
57. Indiana-04 (R+17)
Nels Ackerson v. Representative Steve Buyer
Total Raised — $395,000 v. $479,000
Cash On Hand – $177,000 v. $623,000
CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”
2006 Results for IN-04
58. Illinois-18*** (R+5) – – – ER
Colleen Callahan v. Aaron Schock
Total Raised —- $227,000 v. $1,498,000
Cash On Hand – $155,000 v. $299,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for IL-18
59. California-26 (R+4)
Russ Warner v. Representative David Dreier
Total Raised —- $651,000 v. $918,000
Cash On Hand – $125,000 v. $1,903,000
CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”
2006 Results for CA-26
60. Ohio-14 (R+2)
William O’Neill v. Representative Steven LaTourette
Total Raised — $345,000 v. $1,166,000
Cash On Hand — $46,000 v. $870,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”
2006 Results for OH-14
61. Illinois-06 (R+3) – – – ER
Jill Morgenthaler v. Peter Roskam
Total Raised —- $495,000 v. $1,770,000
Cash On Hand – $230,000 v. $1,213,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for IL-06
62. Florida-09 (R+4) – – – ER
John Dicks v. Representative Gus Bilirakis
Total Raised —- $354,000 v. $1,049,000
Cash On Hand – $323,000 v. $642,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for FL-09
63. Louisiana-07 (R+7) – – – ER
Don Cravins Jr. v. Representative Charles Boustany
Total Raised —- $107,000 v. $1,014,000
Cash On Hand – $104,000 v. $669,000
CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”
2006 Results for LA-07
64. Ohio-07*** (R+6)
Sharen Neuhardt v. Steve Austria
Total Raised —- $363,000 v. $818,000
Cash On Hand – $108,000 v. $361,000
CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for OH-07
65. Minnesota-02 (R+3) – – – ER
Steve Sarvi v. Representative John Kline
Total Raised — $251,000 v. $1,075,000
Cash On Hand — $98,000 v. $647,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for MN-02
66. North Carolina-10 (R+15) – – – ER
Dan Johnson v. Representative Patrick McHenry
Total Raised —- $341,000 v. $1,031,000
Cash On Hand – $218,000 v. $410,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for NC-10
67. Minnesota-06 (R+5) – – – ER
El Tinklenberg v. Representative Michele Bachmann
Total Raised —- $531,000 v. $1,932,000
Cash On Hand – $225,000 v. $1,297,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for MN-06
68. Nebraska-02 (R+9)
James Esch v. Representative Lee Terry
Total Raised —- $246,000 v. $957,000
Cash On Hand – $140,000 v. $616,000
CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
2006 Results for NE-02
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House Democrats
1. Texas-22 (R+15)
Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson
Total Raised — $1,635,000 v. $1,068,000
Cash On Hand – $1,148,000 v. $261,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for TX-22
2. Kansas-02 (R+7)
Representative Nancy Boyda v. Jim Ryun
Total Raised — $1,227,000 v. $1,649,000
Cash On Hand — $892,000 v. $223,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for KS-02
3. Florida-16 (R+2)
Representative Tim Mahoney v. Hal Valeche
Total Raised — $2,497,000 v. $1,054,000
Cash On Hand – $1,172,000 v. $828,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for FL-16
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4. New Hampshire-01 (R+0)
Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley
Total Raised — $919,000 v. $714,000
Cash On Hand – $748,000 v. $475,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for NH-01
5. Oregon-05*** (D+1)
Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson
Total Raised — $382,000 v. $1,963,000
Cash On Hand – $231,000 v. $400,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for OR-05
6. Alabama-05*** (R+6)
Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker
Total Raised — $572,000 v. $431,000
Cash On Hand – $351,000 v. $73,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for AL-05
7. Georgia-08 (R+8)
Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard
Total Raised — $1,169,000 v. $767,000
Cash On Hand – $1,372,000 v. $488,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for GA-08
8. Kentucky-03 (D+2)
Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup
Total Raised — $1,456,000 v. $1,081,000
Cash On Hand – $1,001,000 v. $819,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for KY-03
9. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8)
Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett
Total Raised — $1,648,000 v. $2,010,000
Cash On Hand – $1,149,000 v. $174,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for PA-10
10. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3)
Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart
Total Raised — $2,122,000 v. $823,000
Cash On Hand – $1,574,000 v. $624,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for PA-04
11. Louisiana-06 (R+7)
Don Cazayoux v. Bill Cassidy
Total Raised — $1,833,000 v. $212,000
Cash On Hand — $271,000 v. $195,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for LA-06
12. Mississippi-01 (R+10)
Travis Childers v. Greg Davis
Total Raised — $1,315,000 v. $1,345,000
Cash On Hand — $160,000 v. $53,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for MS-01
13. Arizona-08 (R+1)
Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee
Total Raised — $2,499,000 v. $1,146,000
Cash On Hand – $2,077,000 v. $687,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for AZ-08
14. New York-20 (R+3)
Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell
Total Raised — $3,602,000 v. $2,693,000
Cash On Hand – $2,802,000 v. $1,269,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for NY-20
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15. California-11 (R+3)
Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal
Total Raised — $2,130,000 v. $798,000
Cash On Hand – $1,375,000 v. $663,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
2006 Results for CA-11
16. Pennsylvania-11 (D+5)
Representative Paul Kanjorski v. Lou Barletta
Total Raised — $1,513,000 v. $517,000
Cash On Hand – $2,174,000 v. $321,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for PA-11
17. Arizona-05 (R+4)
Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert
Total Raised — $1,717,000 v. $681,000
Cash On Hand – $1,372,000 v. $514,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for AZ-05
18. Connecticut-05 (D+4)
Representative Chris Murphy v. David Cappiello
Total Raised — $2,272,000 v. $763,000
Cash On Hand – $1,901,000 v. $710,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
2006 Results for CT-05
19. Wisconsin-08 (R+4)
Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard
Total Raised — $1,410,000 v. $812,000
Cash On Hand — $926,000 v. $649,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for WI-08
20. Texas-23 (R+4)
Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson
Total Raised — $2,164,000 v. $534,000
Cash On Hand – $1,193,000 v. $279,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
2006 Results for TX-23
21. Illinois-14 (R+5)
Representative Bill Foster v. Jim Oberweis
Total Raised — $3,459,000 v. $4,660,000
Cash On Hand — $442,000 v. $547,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for IL-14
22. Indiana-09 (R+7)
Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel
Total Raised — $1,734,000 v. $664,000
Cash On Hand – $1,160,000 v. $379,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
2006 Results for IN-09
23. Minnesota-01 (R+1)
Representative Tim Walz v. Brian Davis
Total Raised — $1,941,000 v. $490,000
Cash On Hand – $1,210,000 v. $377,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
2006 Results for MN-01
24. New York-19 (R+1)
Representative John Hall v. Kieran Lalor
Total Raised — $1,821,000 v. $226,000
Cash On Hand – $1,267,000 v. $150,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
2006 Results for NY-19
25. Ohio-18 (R+6)
Representative Zach Space v. Fred Dailey
Total Raised — $1,809,000 v. $272,000
Cash On Hand – $1,141,000 v. $12,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
2006 Results for OH-18
26. Georgia-12 (D+2)
Representative John Barrow v. John Stone
Total Raised — $1,725,000 v. $134,000
Cash On Hand – $1,109,000 v. $8,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
2006 Results for GA-12
27. Indiana-08 (R+9)
Representative Brad Ellsworth v. Greg Goode
Total Raised — $1,246,000 v. $144,000
Cash On Hand — $779,000 v. $9,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
2006 Results for IN-08
Total # of Red to Blue Candidates: 38
Total # of Emerging Races Candidates: 21
Current Breakdown: 236D-199R
Prediction: 25-35 Democratic pickups in the US House
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Your rankings/ratings are similar to mine and make sense. Right now I’m predicting a 20-30 seat gain, only slightly lower than your pick. But you never know, this early in the 2006 cycle it looked like we were not going to gain anywhere near as many seats as we did.
In the defensive front I really think our losses will be slim. I’d put TX-22 as the only Leans R Dem-held seat at the moment. I think you are placing LA-06 far too low. I’d have to put that seat as our second most vulnerable. The repubs will have a much better candidate, the Presidential election on the ballot, and a 3rd party black candidate should siphon many votes from Cazayoux.
At this point I’d put the likely range of Dem-held seats lost at only 1-3 seats. Even seats like FL-16 and KS-02 which were expected to bounce back to the repubs this year are looking better and better for us.
Everyone is underrating Nancy Boyda’s chances, just as they did in ’06. If Jim Ryun becomes the nominee, as is likely, she will win easily. The voters in that district are simply not going decide they made a mistake last time and send that whacko airhead Ryun back to Washington.